A Swap By Any Other Name: The Third Circuit Sides With Kalshi in High-Stakes Fight Over Who Regulates Prediction Markets
May 13, 2026 | The Insider: White Collar Defense and Securities Enforcement
If you’ve watched live TV lately, you’ve probably seen advertisements for sports betting. Today, you can place sports bets not only on the well-known online platforms DraftKings and FanDuel; you can also place such bets on the prediction market platform, Kalshi. You may even have logged onto Kalshi to bet on such things as how many New York Knicks playoff games Timothée Chalamet will attend. In Morvillo Abramowitz Grand Iason & Anello P.C. partner Brian Jacobs’ latest Forbes Insider article, he discusses the Third Circuit’s recent 2–1 ruling in favor of Kalshi, holding that a district court properly concluded that sports-related bets on Kalshi qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, and therefore fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction and are not subject to state regulation. The Third Circuit majority reasoned that sports-related event contracts qualify as swaps because they have potential economic consequences, but will this broad definition of swaps withstand scrutiny?
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